Good morning everyone. It's time to stick my neck out on the line again. After doing a little bit of research, I'm very confident about how I would bet one of these 2013 NFL Conference Championship Games, but I'll take a shot at both of them, just for you... ;) I went 2-2 last week on my picks both against the spread and on the overs/unders (4-4 overall), which now puts my record at 10-6 for this year's playoffs. My best call was that the Patriots would beat the Texans by 13 points: My prediction - Pats 34 Texans 21 ----- Actual score - Pats 41 Texans 28. I picked the right winner in the Seahawks/Falcons game, but lost against the spread. I picked the wrong winner in the Ravens/Broncos game, but won with the spread. THIS BRINGS ME to a prediction that I made before the football season began. After the Broncos got rid of a very popular quarterback in Tim Tebow, they gambled and spent a lot more money signing Peyton Manning. I predicted at the time that the Broncos would not advance any further in the playoffs than they did last season. WOW, Coach got a prediction right... The Broncos got knocked out in exactly the same round that they did last season... Manning and Denver crushed their easy regular season schedule, but the quality of opponent and cold weather finally caught up to the Broncos. Manning has never been a cold weather quarterback. What I didn't know until after last weekend's defeat was that this is the EIGHTH TIME that Peyton has been knocked out in the first round of the playoffs. Let me say here again that I have nothing against Manning, and he has quarterbacked many of my fantasy football teams, but I still think that Denver took a huge risk in signing him due to his age, his injury status, and his price tag. What we won't talk about right now is my prediction that the Eagles would win the NFC East, that the Bills would be a playoff darkhorse, etc, etc... :)
Okay, back to this weekend's games. I cannot promise you anything regarding the outcomes of these matchups, but for me, the NFC Championship Game is a tougher game to bet than the AFC Championship Game. Here we go...
NFC Championship Game: Sunday @ 2:00 p.m. CST
San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1) @ Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
These two groups did not meet each other in the regular season. The 49ers had a pretty week schedule overall, and almost every game that the Falcons were involved in this season was a close one, whether they won or lost. It bothers me that the 49ers tied and lost to the RAMS, but they went up to New England and beat the Patriots (although they were hanging onto that one for dear life). The Falcons crushed the defending Super Bowl Champion Giants, but lost a game to the Panthers. Kaepernick made the Packers look SILLY last week on defense, but the Falcons had Wilson scrambling FOR HIS LIFE in the dome. San Francisco did a great job containing Green Bay's offense, and Atlanta's 'O' dominated the Seahawks..., well, until the 4th quarter, when Ryan threw up a HORRIBLE "jump ball" and that group completely disappeared. I think that this is a close game and I think that the defenses are too good to let the game go "over" the number set by Vegas. With the game being in Atlanta, my prediction is...
Atlanta 24 San Francisco 20 ----- Falcons (+4), Under (49 1/2)
AFC Championship Game: Sunday @ 5:30 p.m. CST
Baltimore Ravens (10-6) @ New England (12-4)
The Ravens beat the Patriots 31-30 at New England on September 23rd. The Ravens lost to the Patriots 23-20 in last year's AFC Championship Game at New England. By the way, my prediction for that game was 23-20 Ravens, but Baltimore managed to thwart me by dropping the game-winning touchdown and missing the game-tying field goal (although they covered against the spread - (+7)...). The Patriots had a cupcake schedule compared to the Ravens, and Baltimore fought through a lot of injuries during the season. New England will not have Rob Gronkowski for this game, who had 5 receptions for 87 yards in last season's AFC Championship Game (the Pats had 239 total receiving yards in that contest). The forecast high for Sunday in New England is 45 degrees with 25 m.p.h. winds, and the game doesn't start until 6:30 p.m. on the east coast. The weather doesn't seem to favor a throwing offense... I do not understand how the Ravens are getting 8 1/2 points (which has been bet down from 9 1/2 points) based on the results of the last 2 meetings involving these teams, and I think the weather will DEFINITELY affect the score, so my prediction is...
Baltimore 23 New England 17 ----- Ravens (+8 1/2), Under (51 1/2)
Yes, two outright upsets Las Vegas... I hope that all of you have an OUTSTANDING football weekend and I'll see you again on Monday, either with a big grin on my face, or with a huge fork for my plate of crow... ;)
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